Key titles concern the performance of Take-Two Interactive's actions, which underwent a decline of 6.7% on 31 August, reaching the minimum from June, triggered by an article by Forbes that hypothesized a long-term release of Grand Theft Auto Online after the basic game. Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey judged this “speculative” hypothesis rather than a confirmed delay. The recurring expenditure of consumers accounted for 84% of net bookings in the quarter of June, while recording a decrease of 1%, with forecasts for the quarter of September indicating a loss of approximately 5% and a further decrease in revenues deriving from mobile devices. The gambling activity continues to be the main area of turnover: recurring expenditure, i.e. in-game purchases and subscriptions that continue to generate revenue between releases, represented 84% of net bookings in the quarter ended on June 30. The general picture shows a decline in turnover from $1.77 billion (September 2025) to $1.53 billion (June 2026), with shares trading at 25.15x normalized profits NTM, near the historic minimum of 25.05x last year, compared to the average of 43.77x. Despite the decrease in revenues, the profitability of the user base in decrease is maintained more solid than expected. Gross margin was 60.36% in the previous quarter against 62.84% last year, but a provision of $43 million for a third-party title dropped on the cost of sales, representing approximately 2.8% of turnover. Pressure is therefore on quantity rather than on unit profitability. An unusual year with ratings similar to the typical ones. Take-Two negotiates with 25,15x the normalized profits NTM, corresponding to the historical minimum of 25,05x of the last twelve months, compared to the average of 43,77x. The compression was gradual from July rather than sudden. VERDETTO: CRITICO La spinta di Take-Two verso un GTA VI completamente single-player, pur con l’impegno a mantenere viva la componente GTA Online, genera una preoccupazione legittima. L’analisi di Mike Hickey e il calo del fatturato (da 1.77 a 1.53 miliardi) rappresentano un campanello d'allarme, soprattutto considerando le previsioni di perdita del 5% nel prossimo trimestre. La dipendenza dall’84% delle prenotazioni nette derivante dalla spesa ricorrente è una vulnerabilità evidente e la riduzione del margine lordo (da 62.84 a 60.36%) non aiuta a mitigare questa debolezza. L'accantonamento di 43 milioni per un titolo abbandonato, seppur parziale, è un ulteriore segnale di instabilità finanziaria e una pressione significativa sul costo delle vendite. La negoziazione degli azionari a livelli storicamente bassi (25.15x) riflette la sfiducia del mercato, e il fatto che questa compressione sia stata graduale e non improvvisa suggerisce un’inclinazione alla prudenza, anziché una solida crescita. L'estensione della mappa di GTA VI fino a tre volte quella di Red Dead Redemption 2 rappresenta, in sé, un elemento interessante, ma la sua sostenibilità finanziaria resta quantomeno discutibile nel contesto di una strategia focalizzata su un solo giocatore.
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